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This is an archived track record. This track record was archived on 11/4/20 13:57 ET. (See latest track record)
These are hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Learn more

Exploding Options
(130453389)

Created by: TerryHarrisOTF TerryHarrisOTF
Started: 08/2020
Options
Last trade: 29 days ago

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $179.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

-128.4%
Cumul. Return

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Cumulative Rate of Return is calculated

= (Ending_equity - Starting_equity) / Starting_equity

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(100.0%)
Max Drawdown
33
Num Trades
66.7%
Win Trades
0.8 : 1
Profit Factor
50.0%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2020                                                 +164.2%+7.6%(108.4%)(19.5%)      

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 15 trades in real-life brokerage accounts. The most recent trade in a real-money brokerage account occurred more than 42 days ago.

Download CSV
Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQtyAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
10/28/20 15:28 VXX2006K39 VXX Nov6'20 39 call LONG 4 0.73 11/4 13:57 0.06 7.87%
Trade id #131953953
Max drawdown($188)
Time11/2/20 0:00
Quant open4
Worst price0.26
Drawdown as % of equity7.87%
($274)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.60
10/26/20 15:38 SPY2028J343 SPY Oct28'20 343 call LONG 10 0.92 10/27 15:19 0.31 27.51%
Trade id #131905546
Max drawdown($650)
Time10/27/20 15:09
Quant open10
Worst price0.27
Drawdown as % of equity27.51%
($624)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $14.00
10/21/20 15:45 MSFT2023J217.5 MSFT Oct23'20 217.5 call LONG 45 1.00 10/24 9:35 0.00 284.85%
Trade id #131827588
Max drawdown($4,455)
Time10/23/20 0:00
Quant open45
Worst price0.01
Drawdown as % of equity-284.85%
($4,532)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $31.50
10/20/20 14:46 DOCU2023J240 DOCU Oct23'20 240 call LONG 50 1.52 10/24 9:35 0.00 482.74%
Trade id #131801048
Max drawdown($7,550)
Time10/23/20 0:00
Quant open50
Worst price0.01
Drawdown as % of equity-482.74%
($7,635)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $35.00
10/20/20 14:13 TTWO2023J170 TTWO Oct23'20 170 call LONG 100 1.19 10/24 9:35 0.00 741.05%
Trade id #131800272
Max drawdown($11,590)
Time10/23/20 0:00
Quant open100
Worst price0.03
Drawdown as % of equity-741.05%
($11,960)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $70.00
10/21/20 15:35 FDX2023J290 FDX Oct23'20 290 call LONG 50 1.50 10/23 9:49 0.07 477.62%
Trade id #131827291
Max drawdown($7,470)
Time10/23/20 9:31
Quant open50
Worst price0.01
Drawdown as % of equity-477.62%
($7,240)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $70.00
10/20/20 10:17 UPS2023J177.5 UPS Oct23'20 177.5 call LONG 50 0.85 10/20 11:41 1.01 2.94%
Trade id #131793349
Max drawdown($850)
Time10/20/20 10:27
Quant open50
Worst price0.68
Drawdown as % of equity-2.94%
$735
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $70.00
10/19/20 15:32 QCOM2023J130 QCOM Oct23'20 130 call LONG 50 1.18 10/20 10:09 1.39 0.68%
Trade id #131777173
Max drawdown($200)
Time10/20/20 9:54
Quant open50
Worst price1.14
Drawdown as % of equity-0.68%
$980
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $70.00
10/15/20 15:41 NFLX2016J560 NFLX Oct16'20 560 call LONG 50 1.11 10/17 9:35 0.00 16.06%
Trade id #131723631
Max drawdown($5,500)
Time10/16/20 0:00
Quant open50
Worst price0.01
Drawdown as % of equity-16.06%
($5,585)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $35.00
10/14/20 15:42 SBUX2016J89 SBUX Oct16'20 89 call LONG 50 0.90 10/16 11:26 0.15 11.49%
Trade id #131701084
Max drawdown($3,750)
Time10/16/20 11:26
Quant open50
Worst price0.15
Drawdown as % of equity-11.49%
($3,820)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $70.00
10/13/20 15:58 AAPL2016J123 AAPL Oct16'20 123 call LONG 50 1.31 10/14 9:52 1.59 6.69%
Trade id #131677699
Max drawdown($2,400)
Time10/14/20 0:00
Quant open50
Worst price0.83
Drawdown as % of equity-6.69%
$1,330
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $70.00
10/12/20 15:47 ZS2016J157.5 ZS Oct16'20 157.5 call LONG 50 0.87 10/13 10:22 1.50 n/a $3,080
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $70.00
10/7/20 11:31 DDOG2009J111 DDOG Oct9'20 111 call LONG 50 1.00 10/9 10:17 0.25 16.69%
Trade id #131566147
Max drawdown($4,750)
Time10/8/20 0:00
Quant open50
Worst price0.05
Drawdown as % of equity-16.69%
($3,820)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $70.00
10/8/20 15:53 CAT2009J157.5 CAT Oct9'20 157.5 call LONG 50 0.52 10/9 9:36 1.52 0.37%
Trade id #131599769
Max drawdown($100)
Time10/8/20 15:58
Quant open50
Worst price0.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.37%
$4,930
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $70.00
9/30/20 14:20 UPS2002J170 UPS Oct2'20 170 call LONG 50 1.25 10/1 10:33 1.31 15.54%
Trade id #131443041
Max drawdown($4,450)
Time10/1/20 0:00
Quant open50
Worst price0.36
Drawdown as % of equity-15.54%
$230
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $70.00
9/29/20 15:26 DE2002J225 DE Oct2'20 225 call LONG 50 1.23 9/30 10:10 1.70 5.84%
Trade id #131422249
Max drawdown($1,700)
Time9/30/20 0:00
Quant open50
Worst price0.89
Drawdown as % of equity-5.84%
$2,280
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $70.00
9/22/20 15:43 SPY2025U325 SPY Sep25'20 325 put LONG 50 1.17 9/23 10:36 1.42 7.21%
Trade id #131301490
Max drawdown($2,050)
Time9/23/20 0:00
Quant open50
Worst price0.76
Drawdown as % of equity-7.21%
$1,180
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $70.00
9/14/20 15:44 GLD2018I185 GLD Sep18'20 185 call LONG 50 1.12 9/16 11:32 1.27 9.39%
Trade id #131167347
Max drawdown($2,600)
Time9/15/20 0:00
Quant open50
Worst price0.60
Drawdown as % of equity-9.39%
$680
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $70.00
9/10/20 15:57 CAT2011I152.5 CAT Sep11'20 152.5 call LONG 50 0.40 9/11 9:49 0.55 2.8%
Trade id #131117017
Max drawdown($750)
Time9/11/20 9:40
Quant open50
Worst price0.25
Drawdown as % of equity-2.80%
$680
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $70.00
9/8/20 14:07 VXX2011I29 VXX Sep11'20 29 call LONG 50 1.20 9/9 13:32 0.46 14.18%
Trade id #131070546
Max drawdown($4,450)
Time9/9/20 0:00
Quant open50
Worst price0.31
Drawdown as % of equity-14.18%
($3,770)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $70.00
8/28/20 15:40 HD2004I297.5 HD Sep4'20 297.5 call LONG 50 0.78 9/2 10:08 0.13 10.45%
Trade id #130874725
Max drawdown($3,300)
Time9/2/20 10:06
Quant open50
Worst price0.12
Drawdown as % of equity-10.45%
($3,320)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $70.00
8/31/20 15:23 FB2004I312.5 FB Sep4'20 312.5 call LONG 10 1.29 9/2 9:33 1.36 1.58%
Trade id #130901512
Max drawdown($420)
Time9/1/20 0:00
Quant open10
Worst price0.87
Drawdown as % of equity-1.58%
$56
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $14.00
8/31/20 11:05 SPY2004I354 SPY Sep4'20 354 call LONG 50 1.16 9/2 9:32 2.01 9.24%
Trade id #130895254
Max drawdown($2,450)
Time9/1/20 0:00
Quant open50
Worst price0.67
Drawdown as % of equity-9.24%
$4,180
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $70.00
8/27/20 13:34 QQQ2028H292.5 QQQ Aug28'20 292.5 call LONG 50 1.38 8/27 14:19 1.60 3.63%
Trade id #130824886
Max drawdown($1,050)
Time8/27/20 13:52
Quant open50
Worst price1.17
Drawdown as % of equity-3.63%
$1,030
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $70.00
8/26/20 10:34 PYPL2028H207.5 PYPL Aug28'20 207.5 call LONG 50 0.96 8/26 12:00 1.19 n/a $1,080
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $70.00
8/25/20 15:56 NFLX2028H510 NFLX Aug28'20 510 call LONG 50 1.47 8/26 9:32 2.25 n/a $3,830
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $70.00
8/25/20 10:42 QQQ2028H287.5 QQQ Aug28'20 287.5 call LONG 50 1.11 8/25 14:57 1.30 3.24%
Trade id #130778002
Max drawdown($750)
Time8/25/20 10:55
Quant open50
Worst price0.96
Drawdown as % of equity-3.24%
$880
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $70.00
8/24/20 10:04 HD2028H290 HD Aug28'20 290 call LONG 50 0.92 8/24 10:52 1.34 1.91%
Trade id #130757253
Max drawdown($400)
Time8/24/20 10:09
Quant open50
Worst price0.84
Drawdown as % of equity-1.91%
$2,030
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $70.00
8/21/20 14:34 HD2028H290 HD Aug28'20 290 call LONG 50 0.97 8/21 15:10 1.26 1.77%
Trade id #130735593
Max drawdown($350)
Time8/21/20 14:41
Quant open50
Worst price0.90
Drawdown as % of equity-1.77%
$1,380
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $70.00
8/17/20 15:49 SPY2021H340 SPY Aug21'20 340 call LONG 100 1.10 8/19 11:00 1.11 9.28%
Trade id #130655814
Max drawdown($1,850)
Time8/18/20 0:00
Quant open50
Worst price0.74
Drawdown as % of equity-9.28%
($40)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $140.00

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    8/4/2020
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $10,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    113.78
  • Age
    120 days ago
  • What it trades
    Options
  • # Trades
    33
  • # Profitable
    22
  • % Profitable
    66.70%
  • Avg trade duration
    1.5 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    100%
  • drawdown period
    Oct 22, 2020 - Nov 03, 2020
  • Cumul. Return
    -128.4%
  • Avg win
    $1,914
  • Avg loss
    $4,730
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $87
  • Margin Used
    $0
  • Buying Power
    $87
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    0.81:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    -1.37
  • Sortino Ratio
    -1.49
  • Calmar Ratio
    -1.002
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    -133.56%
  • Correlation to SP500
    0.03840
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    10.96%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    n/a
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    n/a
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    n/a
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.34%
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    -1.284%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    1.00%
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    -100.0%
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    145.00%
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    692
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    959
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    0
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    824
  • Management
  • No Subs Allowed Flag (1: no subs)
    0
  • Strat abandoned?
    0
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    -
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $4,731
  • Avg Win
    $1,915
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $52,038.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    3
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $42,125.000
  • # Winners
    22
  • Num Months Winners
    2
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    0
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    11
  • % Winners
    66.7%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    2117.40
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    35.29
  • Avg Trade Length
    1.5 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    22
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    112.16
  • Daily leverage (max)
    1683.81
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    0.00
  • Beta
    0.58
  • Treynor Index
    0.00
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.72
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    1.43
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.06
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    1.87
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    -4.448
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.00
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.793
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -1.031
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    -0.225
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    5.05550
  • SD
    5.67374
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.89104
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.50271
  • df
    2.00000
  • t
    0.44552
  • p
    0.34976
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -3.20786
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    4.79743
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -3.44805
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    4.45347
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    2.52898
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    4.52898
  • Upside part of mean
    9.05356
  • Downside part of mean
    -3.99806
  • Upside SD
    4.42658
  • Downside SD
    1.99903
  • N nonnegative terms
    2.00000
  • N negative terms
    1.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    3.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.17794
  • Mean of criterion
    5.05550
  • SD of predictor
    0.10146
  • SD of criterion
    5.67374
  • Covariance
    0.34238
  • r
    0.59474
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    33.25780
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.86244
  • Mean Square Error
    41.60920
  • DF error
    1.00000
  • t(b)
    0.73981
  • p(b)
    0.29725
  • t(a)
    -0.05681
  • p(a)
    0.51806
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -537.94400
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    604.45900
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -193.74000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    192.01500
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.15201
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.86244
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -18.64370
  • SD
    13.10970
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -1.42213
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.80235
  • df
    2.00000
  • t
    -0.71106
  • p
    0.72461
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -5.40711
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.84768
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -4.80036
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.19566
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -1.58649
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    0.41351
  • Upside part of mean
    4.85936
  • Downside part of mean
    -23.50310
  • Upside SD
    2.33311
  • Downside SD
    11.75160
  • N nonnegative terms
    2.00000
  • N negative terms
    1.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    3.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.17290
  • Mean of criterion
    -18.64370
  • SD of predictor
    0.09999
  • SD of criterion
    13.10970
  • Covariance
    0.07348
  • r
    0.05606
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    7.34965
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -19.91450
  • Mean Square Error
    342.65000
  • DF error
    1.00000
  • t(b)
    0.05614
  • p(b)
    0.48215
  • t(a)
    -0.45894
  • p(a)
    0.63696
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -1655.97000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1670.67000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -571.26500
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    531.43600
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -2.53669
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -19.91450
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.99958
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.99985
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.60656
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    1.14192
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    3.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00281
  • Quartile 1
    0.52791
  • Median
    1.05301
  • Quartile 3
    2.13402
  • Maximum
    3.21504
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00281
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.05301
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    3.21504
  • Inter Quartile Range
    1.60611
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    1.00000
  • Minimum
    0.99719
  • Quartile 1
    0.99719
  • Median
    0.99719
  • Quartile 3
    0.99719
  • Maximum
    0.99719
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.00000
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -3.96190
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -1.00000
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -1.00282
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -1.00015
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -10.31860
  • SD
    3.22768
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -3.19691
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -3.15988
  • df
    65.00000
  • t
    -1.60454
  • p
    0.94328
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -7.12835
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.75847
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -7.10253
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.78277
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -3.57304
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    3.17711
  • Upside part of mean
    9.17517
  • Downside part of mean
    -19.49380
  • Upside SD
    1.52527
  • Downside SD
    2.88790
  • N nonnegative terms
    28.00000
  • N negative terms
    38.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    66.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.19277
  • Mean of criterion
    -10.31860
  • SD of predictor
    0.20756
  • SD of criterion
    3.22768
  • Covariance
    0.03657
  • r
    0.05458
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.84880
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -10.50900
  • Mean Square Error
    10.54920
  • DF error
    64.00000
  • t(b)
    0.43731
  • p(b)
    0.33168
  • t(a)
    -1.61711
  • p(a)
    0.94461
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -3.02867
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    4.72627
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -23.43160
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    2.46716
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -12.15670
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -10.48220
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -18.50270
  • SD
    4.51813
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -4.09522
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -4.04778
  • df
    65.00000
  • t
    -2.05541
  • p
    0.97807
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -8.04776
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.11225
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -8.01434
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.08123
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -4.15793
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    1.85797
  • Upside part of mean
    8.26794
  • Downside part of mean
    -26.77070
  • Upside SD
    1.26828
  • Downside SD
    4.44998
  • N nonnegative terms
    28.00000
  • N negative terms
    38.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    66.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.17138
  • Mean of criterion
    -18.50270
  • SD of predictor
    0.20828
  • SD of criterion
    4.51813
  • Covariance
    0.02965
  • r
    0.03151
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.68354
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -18.61990
  • Mean Square Error
    20.71190
  • DF error
    64.00000
  • t(b)
    0.25221
  • p(b)
    0.40085
  • t(a)
    -2.05078
  • p(a)
    0.97781
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -4.73076
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    6.09783
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -36.75810
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.48167
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -27.06910
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -18.61990
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.41125
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.47338
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.18525
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.38046
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    66.00000
  • Minimum
    0.21427
  • Quartile 1
    0.94837
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.03543
  • Maximum
    1.62657
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.71991
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99093
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.01028
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.12646
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.08706
  • Number outliers low
    9.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.13636
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.54888
  • Number of outliers high
    4.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.06061
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.29901
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.45650
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.22647
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.50944
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.11561
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.28316
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.45856
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    6.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00470
  • Quartile 1
    0.07111
  • Median
    0.12498
  • Quartile 3
    0.15619
  • Maximum
    0.99762
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.02907
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.12411
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.12585
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.58196
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.08508
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.16667
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.99762
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -3.93189
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -1.00000
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -1.00238
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    -1.71832
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -2.11248
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.40500
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    0.25%
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -318725000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    12

Strategy Description

Using powerful technical indicators, we buy stock & ETF options before the closing bell with expectation that the position will gap up the following morning. Our target percentage is at least 50% within two days.

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2020-08-04
Suggested Minimum Capital
$25,000
# Trades
33
# Profitable
22
% Profitable
66.7%
Correlation S&P500
0.038
Sharpe Ratio
-1.37
Sortino Ratio
-1.49
Beta
0.58
Alpha
0.00
Leverage
112.16 Average
1683.81 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

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Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.